Everything seems rather positive again in HU3, doesn’t it?
Last weekend’s victory against Millwall was perfectly referenced by Liam Rosenior as “almost after the lord mayor’s show”, highlighting that City still have further gears to click through before hopefully cementing a play-off berth.
As with every team chasing the top six, consistency is a must. Therefore, it’s paramount that the Tigers are able to record three successive wins for the first time since defeating Swansea City on January 29th 2022.
The landscape of the two sides have drastically changed since then, in what was the first of Shota Arveladze’s 30 games at the MKM Stadium, before subsequently being replaced by Rosenior.
So, how is this weekend’s fixture shaping up?
Room for improvement
In relation to the head coach’s aforementioned quote, the 1-0 win last Saturday once again demonstrated that this team are able to see out games whilst not necessarily at their best.
Given the pre-match hype regarding the captures of Ryan Giles, Anass Zaroury, Abdülkadir Ömür et al alongside the much-anticipated return of Jaden Philogene, it’s fair to say that after the latter’s 5th minute strike after the Moroccan’s extraordinary attempt, the rest of the game was somewhat flat.
City registered an xG of just 0.44 from the seven attempts that followed across the remaining 85 minutes, in what was a low-quality affair in terms of output when considering Rosenior’s attacking armoury and some of Millwall’s options, such as Zian Flemming who attempted an audacious but unsuccessful lob over Ryan Allsopp.
It must be said that this isn’t a full-on criticism of Hull’s play – if anything it bodes well for the remaining 17 outings that the side has now gone through an interrupted week of preparations for the Swansea clash, giving the new signings ample time to bed in further with our possession-heavy and front-footed style.
Defensively, there was little room for complaints, as we saw Jacob Greaves return to his natural centre-half position and, against a side notorious for it’s physical presence and directness, the 23-year-old won three of his four aerial battles as well as four of his five on the floor.
| Jacob Greaves Defensive Stats – Hull City 1-0 Millwall (As per Sofascore) | Total |
| Clearances | 6 |
| Blocked Shots | 1 |
| Interceptions | 3 |
| Tackles | 1 |
| Dribbled Past | 0 |
| Ground Duels (Won) | 5 (4) |
| Aerial Duels (Won) | 4 (3) |
A further boost has been given following the news that eight-goal man Aaron Connolly will come back into the fold this weekend, as well as Cyrus Christie, who was responsible for assisting Philogene and Tyler Morton in November’s encounter against the upcoming opposition.
Opposition Focus
Swansea have endured a frustrating season, and the transition to former assistant and ex-Notts County head coach Luke Williams’ management hasn’t made for great reading either.
Despite winning his first game in charge – a 2-0 win in the FA Cup Third Round over League Two Morecambe – The Swans are yet to claim three points in the Championship since New Year’s Day.
Since his appointment four days later, Swansea are one of six sides in the division without victory, and have conceded 14 goals across all competitions, exceeding a still high xG against total of 12.17 in that timeframe.
Across their 30 league games, Swansea have averaged 1.3 goals per game but conceded 1.5 goals per game, as well as ever-present Carl Rushworth topping the divisional overall when it comes to errors leading to goals with three – a statistic which will wet the appetite for the abundance of attacking options Hull have at their disposal.
Key Player – Matt Grimes
The Jacks’ captain has ultimately been their best performer this season, and is still one of the more underrated midfielders across the division, given some of the standout competition in his position.
At 28 years of age, Grimes is very much still in the prime of his career, and has played every minute of every game under the management of Michael Duff, Alan Sheehan and Williams, picking up an average rating of 7.15.
Averaging 1.2 key passes per game and four assists across the campaign with four others, Grimes is constantly looking to progress play in another possession-heavy side who are the third-highest scorers in the bottom half, despite top scorer Jamal Lowe only netting six times to date.
Prediction
Embed from Getty ImagesDespite certain facets of the already mentioned underlying data pointing towards a third straight victory for the Tigers, it must be noted that Swansea have scored 56% of their goals on the road.
In the previous meeting at the Swansea.Com Stadium, although then managed by Duff, the visitors were able to capitalise on some shoddy defending from Rosenior’s side -in particular Jerry Yates’ goal which made it 2-0 at the time.
However, back-to-back solitary goal victories coupled with much-needed clean sheets show that City are a completely different proposition, as only seven of last weekend’s starters against Millwall kicked off the 2-2 draw in South Wales on November 25th.
The rate which Swansea are conceding goals at is clearly not sustainable, and could mean that they’re dragged even further into relegation trouble depending on results.
But, it’s a great opportunity for Hull to close in on West Bromwich Albion. Depending on the Baggies’ result in the early kick-off at fourth place Ipswich Town, City could close the gap between the two sides to one point, just two weeks before the West Midlands side travel to East Yorkshire.
The two sides have scored 82 goals between them so far, so expect a few more to be added by 5PM on Saturday.
Prediction: Hull City 3-1 Swansea City
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